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Problem Solving & Quality · Solutions

Potential Problem Analysis

Before launching the chosen solution, ask what could go wrong with it, what would cause that, and prepare preventive and contingent actions.

  • Time45 min
  • FormatSmall group
  • StageSolutions

Potential Problem Analysis: what it is and why it works

Potential problem analysis is a structured look at a chosen solution before it is launched. The team writes the implementation steps, asks for each step what could go wrong, identifies the likely causes of each potential problem and rates them for probability and seriousness. For the most important ones, it plans two kinds of actions: preventive actions that reduce the likelihood by acting on the causes, and contingent actions that limit the damage if the problem occurs anyway, each with a clear trigger that tells people when to act.

The method is lighter and faster than a full FMEA and focuses on one plan rather than an entire product or process. It catches the classic side effects of improvement work: a fix that solves one problem and creates another on the neighboring process, in maintenance or for the customer. Its value comes largely from who is in the room, particularly people from upstream and downstream operations who will feel the consequences first. It fits naturally between choosing a solution, often with a weighted matrix or risk-benefit grid, and piloting it. Many of its contingent actions become the stop criteria and rollback plan of the pilot run.

What you need

  • The chosen solution and its step-by-step implementation plan
  • People from the process, upstream, downstream, maintenance and safety
  • Knowledge of similar past changes and their side effects
  • The indicators that would show a problem early

What you get

  • A list of potential problems with likely causes and ratings
  • Preventive actions assigned to owners
  • Contingent actions with explicit triggers
  • An updated implementation plan including these actions

When to use it

When a good fix is about to create the next problem on the neighboring process.

How to do it, step by step

  1. Write the chosen solution and its implementation steps.
  2. For each step, ask what could go wrong — on this process, upstream, downstream, for safety and for the customer.
  3. For each potential problem, list the likely causes and rate probability and seriousness.
  4. Plan preventive actions against the likely causes, and contingent actions with a clear trigger if the problem occurs anyway.
  5. Add the actions and triggers to the implementation plan with owners.

Worked example: Switching degreaser on a zinc plating line

Illustrative scenario — figures are realistic but not from a real company.

A metal finishing shop plating steel brackets was about to replace its alkaline soak degreaser with a new product that cleaned better at a lower temperature, saving about $18,000 a year in natural gas. The switch was scheduled over a weekend. The wastewater treatment operator and a representative from the chemical supplier joined the plating team for a 45-minute session.

  1. The plan had five steps: drain and clean the tank, charge the new product, heat to the new setpoint, run test parts and restart production. The team asked what could go wrong at each step and beyond the line.
  2. The wastewater operator raised the main issue: the new surfactant could foam in the treatment system and interfere with metal precipitation, risking a discharge permit exceedance. Probability was judged medium, seriousness high.
  3. Preventive actions: a jar test of the new chemistry with the plant's actual wastewater before the switch, and controlled dosing of the old tank contents to treatment over several days rather than a single dump.
  4. Contingent actions: if foam in the equalization tank exceeded a marked level or treated effluent zinc exceeded the internal action limit, dosing of antifoam would start and drag-out to treatment would be diverted to a holding tank.

Result. The jar test showed moderate foaming, so an antifoam was ordered in advance. During the first week, foam reached the trigger once, and antifoam dosing resolved it within an hour. Effluent stayed within the permit. The plating supervisor noted that without the wastewater operator in the room, the problem would have been discovered by the regulator's sample.

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Common pitfalls and how to avoid them

  • Analyzing only the process being changed and ignoring neighbors.Invite people from upstream, downstream, utilities, maintenance and safety, and ask explicitly about effects on them.
  • Planning contingent actions without a trigger, so nobody knows when to start them.Define a measurable trigger and a named person who decides for each contingent action.
  • Listing dozens of remote problems and planning actions for all of them.Rate probability and seriousness and act on the few that matter most.
  • Treating the analysis as a document separate from the plan.Insert the preventive and contingent actions into the implementation plan with owners and dates.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between potential problem analysis and FMEA?

Both anticipate failures. FMEA covers an entire product, process or equipment systematically, element by element, and becomes a long-lived reference document. Potential problem analysis focuses on a single plan or change, is quicker to perform and is used just before implementation. Many teams run a potential problem analysis for a change and then update the relevant FMEA with any new failure modes discovered.

What is the difference between preventive and contingent actions?

Preventive actions act on the likely causes of a potential problem to reduce the chance that it happens. Contingent actions are prepared in advance to reduce the impact if the problem happens anyway. A contingent action needs a trigger, such as a measured value or an observed event, that tells people exactly when to put it into effect.

Who should take part in a potential problem analysis?

The people who will implement the change, plus those who could be affected by it: upstream and downstream operations, maintenance, utilities, safety, quality and sometimes the customer or supplier. Neighboring departments are especially valuable because they are the first to experience side effects and often see risks the implementing team does not.

Origin

Potential Problem Analysis — Charles H. Kepner & Benjamin B. Tregoe, The Rational Manager, 1965.

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